Forecasting Fundamentals

Summary

Projecting a metric into the future using historical patterns — from a simple moving average to more structured methods — always paired with an honest sense of the forecast's uncertainty.

• 1Build a simple forecast (e.g. next month's sales) using a moving average or basic trend line.
• 2Learn why every forecast should come with a confidence range, not a single number.
• 3Compare your forecast to what actually happened, if the data is available, and learn from the gap.