In short
A family of forecasting methods that weight recent observations more heavily than older ones — simple, fast, and often a genuinely strong baseline before reaching for more complex models.
How to learn this
- 1Fit a simple exponential smoothing model and compare it to your ARIMA baseline.
- 2Learn the difference between simple, double (trend), and triple (seasonal) exponential smoothing.
- 3Understand why simpler models sometimes outperform complex ones on noisy, short series.
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