Exponential Smoothing

Summary

A family of forecasting methods that weight recent observations more heavily than older ones — simple, fast, and often a genuinely strong baseline before reaching for more complex models.

• 1Fit a simple exponential smoothing model and compare it to your ARIMA baseline.
• 2Learn the difference between simple, double (trend), and triple (seasonal) exponential smoothing.
• 3Understand why simpler models sometimes outperform complex ones on noisy, short series.